Vote of no confidence against the GroKo

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In February, economic momentum in the euro zone is weakening somewhat. The total index drops by one point to 31.9 points. While the situation may continue to improve, expectations have fallen to their lowest level since February 2017. Germany plays a major role in this process. The GroKo negotiations are not well received by investors. Expectations drop by more than 6 points! In the rest of the world, however, investors surveyed by sentix believe that the economic situation remains robust.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 04-2018

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US-Aktien-Risiken bleiben stark erhöht

Noch immer zeigen die Aktienmärkte in den USA keine Reaktion, obwohl die Risiko-Analyse immer stärkere Signale sendet. Das Research-Portfolio steht in den letzten Wochen unter Druck, doch die Analyse der sentix-Daten spricht weiter dafür, an den Positionen festzuhalten. Bei EUR-JPY bauen wir unsere Positionierung sogar weiter aus.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EUR-JPY

Lesen Sie hier die Ergebniskommentierung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

Headline Index at all-time low!

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At the beginning of 2018, the euro zone is still in robust shape. As in the past few months, only a few investors are expecting major unrest in the euro zone. In January 2018, the overall index even fell to a historic low of 6.9%! If you want to look out for possible problem areas, the focus will naturally be on Italy. The forthcoming parliamentary elec-tions are a source of uncertainty. The Italian sub-index is rising against the general trend.

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sentix ASR Essentials 04-2018

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Gold optimism at risk if dollar pessimism recedes

The latest sentix survey underlines the extent to which investors are downbeat on the US dollar, both in the near and medium-term. This is especially evident in strategic bias readings on USD/JPY, which this week dropped to the lowest level seen since 2012. Deep pessimism on the dollar chimes with investors’ elevated optimism on Gold. In this respect, therefore, it is notable that near-term sentiment on USD/JPY has edged back from recent lows in the last couple of weeks. Elevated optimism on Gold could be challenged if pessimism on the dollar further recedes. See charts 2-4, p2.

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Risk appetite for equities reaches all-time high

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Investors are showing an unprecedented level of risk in their equity exposures. An indicator of this is rather the pre-ferred investment themes and styles than the total equity exposure. Especially stocks in the emerging markets are very popular with investors. Furthermore, investors increasingly see IPOs as a promising investment opportunity. In addition, investors are more and more pro-cyclical.

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