sentix Euro Break-up Index News

On this page we provide information about the latest development of the sentix Euro break-up Index. This indicator shows over time, how likely individual and institutional investors rate the probabilty of a breakup of the euro area (leaving at least one country) within 12 months time. Also it reflects which countries are particularly affected.

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Stabilized Eurozone

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During the silly season, political topics are scarce goods in Euroland. In fact, awareness is completely focused on the stabilization of the Euro. This is an indication for investors that the Eurozone solidarity is increasingly stable. In this environment, the Euroland overall index of the sentix Euro break-up index has hardly changed. Its marginal adjustment in July from 8.6% to 8.9% shall not be interpreted turn around or warning signal, but rather is due to its meanwhile low value. This can also be seen in low values of measured exit risks of individual Eurozone countries.

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France provides momentum for the eurozone

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Following the French parliament elections, the fears of a break-up of the eurozone continue to decline. The overall Euroland index fell back to 8.6% (before:11.4%), the lowest level since September 2014. In particular, the Greek sub-index continued its dynamic recreation. This trend could be also noticed for the Italian sub-index. The general trend of reassurance could not be transferred to the index, which measures the contagion risk. It rose from around 34% to 38%.

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Reduced risk of contagion

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Following the French presidential elections, investors' perception of the euro crisis has once again relaxed considerably. The overall Euroland index fell to 11.4%, the lowest since autumn 2015. While the Greek sub-index remains virtually unchanged, the probability of exit from France and Italy drops significantly. As a result, the risk of contagion is reduced to around 34%.

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France relaxed

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The first election round to the French presidential election has appeased investors' minds. Only 13.6% of investors are now expecting the euro to break-up, after 18.7% in the previous month. For France, the probability of an Euro ex-it (“Frexit”) decreases to 3.5% after an high of 8,4% end of February. However, Greece and Italy remain the most likely potential candidates for exit.

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Conditional Relief

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The situation in the Eurozone significantly calms after the general elections in the Netherlands. The surprising weak turnout for the Eurosceptic Wilder party is the reason for investors to reconsider their pessimism about the union. In March, the sentix Euro break up Index eases below the 20-percentage point mark. Contagion risks, in contrast, remain high.

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