sentix ASR Essentials 39-2017

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Investors increasingly poles apart on Equities versus Bonds

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors remain resolutely upbeat on equities and deeply downbeat on bunds. As a result, the sentiment gap between bunds and eurozone equities is now large and growing, albeit the gap has yet to reach historic lows. In the case of equities, investors’ increasingly positive medium-term strategic bias on the EuroSTOXX is likely being lent support by growing caution on the euro, with EUR/USD medium-term strategic bias readings rolling over in recent weeks. The interplay between investor opinion on equities, bonds and the euro remains notable. It is a sentiment angle worth watching as markets move into the final quarter of the year. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 38-2017

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Unterschätztes Wahlergebnis?!

Wie von uns erwartet, war die Bundestagswahl nicht das allseits favorisierte None-Event. Saisonal ist nach der Wahl ohnehin meist eine Konsolidierung des Aktienmarktes angelegt. Mit der hohen Unsicherheit über das künftige Regierungsbündnis hat der Markt einen guten Grund dazu. Auch für den Euro könnte das Wahlergebnis Signalwirkung haben.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EuroSTOXX, DAX, S&P 500, EUR-USD

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sentix ASR Essentials 38-2017

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Backing away from a positive Euro bias

The latest sentix survey revealed that sentiment on the euro was relatively neutral versus the US dollar ahead of the German election results, though investors’ strategic bias on the single currency continues to weaken. On the latter front, readings on EUR/USD dropped to their lowest level since mid-March. Changing opinion on the medium-term outlook for the euro had little impact on equity views, with strategic bias readings on eurozone indices also edging lower over the week. However, a continued moderation in investors’ medium-term euro bias moving into Q4 could potentially provide a plank of support for investors strategic views on eurozone equities. One to watch! See Charts 2-4, p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 37-2017

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Deutschland vor der Wahl – Eine Bestandsaufnahme

Die kommende Bundestagswahl ist für viele Beobachter ein None-Event. Überraschungen werden mehrheitlich nicht erwartet. Aus diesem Grund wollen wir uns das Ereignis, auch vor dem Hintergrund der von uns durchgeführten Sonderumfragen, etwas näher anschauen.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 37-2017

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Gold sentiment reverses

We are currently measuring higher sentiment swings in the interest, currencies and commodities markets. Especially Gold reversed its overheated sentiment to a more neutral level. For bonds, we measure a substantial increase of interest rate fears. In the case of equities, however, there are only moderate changes in investor sentiment. A very unusual development occurred in Japan: while the strategic bias for USD-JPY is on the decline, investors are still optimistic for Japanese equities.

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