sentix ASR Essentials 09-2018

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High pessimism ahead of Italy's election

An emotional week lies behind us, which has created a lot of emotional extremes. Investors got cold feet before the two important votes in Germany (SPD vote on Groko) and Italy (parliamentary election). It is noticeable that the asset classes in Italy are strategically assessed even more critically than their European counterparts. Is this an anti-cyclical opportunity?

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sentix Investmentmeinung 08-2018

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Strategischer Bias bleibt vor Italien-Wahl schwach

Die auffälligste Entwicklung im sentix-Datenkranz bleibt die Schwäche des Strategischen Bias. Bei viele Aktienmärkten registrieren wir neue 26-Wochen-Tiefs. Diese Entwicklung steht bislang noch in einem gewissen Widerspruch zur konjunkturellen Zuversicht der Anleger. Auch die anstehenden Wahlen in Italien lassen die Anleger kalt.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

Lesen Sie hier die Ergebniskommentierung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

sentix ASR Essentials 08-2018

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Mind the big strategic bias gap between Gold and Oil

The latest sentix survey underlines the large gap that remains in terms of investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Gold compared to Crude oil. This in part reflects investors’ increasingly downbeat view on the outlook for oil, with survey readings now close to historic lows. However, the unusually large gap is also consistent with this year’s dollar weakness. On this front, it is notable that in recent weeks optimism on Gold has begun to recede as sentiment on USD/JPY has reversed from lows. Gold sentiment may be further tarnished if the dollar’s revival continues. It could also challenge investors’ polarised views on the medium-term outlook for Gold as compared to oil. See charts 2-4, p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 07-2018

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Wie ungemütlich wird es?

Nach der heftigen Korrektur an der Wall Street Anfang Februar folgte ein ebenso beherzter Rebound. Alles also halb so schlimm wie es scheint. Doch die sentix-Daten sprechen eine andere Sprache. Die Investoren fassen keinen Mut und sehen die Korrektur nicht als reinigendes Gewitter. Stattdessen sendet der Strategische Bias das Signal einen weiteren Vertrauensschwundes.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EuroSTOXX 50, S&P 500, EUR-JPY

Lesen Sie hier die Ergebniskommentierung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

sentix ASR Essentials 07-2018

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A dollar rally could tarnish Gold versus Oil

Around a month ago we noted that a lot of positive sentiment was baked into commodities as a grouping, as well as emerging equity markets. The latest sentix survey suggests some of that optimism has receded. In the case of commodities, an interesting divergence has emerged in terms of investors’ medium-term bias on Gold (rising) and Crude Oil (falling sharply). The gap between strategic bias readings on both markets has now reached historic highs, which fits with recent US dollar weakness given Gold’s stronger inverse historic correlation. A bounce in the dollar could see this Gold-Oil gap begin to close, especially with Crude Oil strategic bias readings now at the low-end of their historic range. See charts 2-4, p2.

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