sentix ASR Essentials 44-2017

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Nikkei optimism boosted by Yen pessimism

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors have become modestly less optimistic on the near-term outlook for equities (albeit survey readings remain elevated), while their medium-term strategic bias on equities continues to weaken. In the case of Japanese equities, rising sentiment in recent weeks has chimed with growing optimism on USD/JPY. This week’s reversal in USD/JPY sentiment from high optimism levels is, therefore, consistent with receding optimism on the Nikkei. It suggests that a continued lessening in Yen pessimism could undermine still high optimism levels on the Nikkei 225. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 43-2017

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Zwischen Euphorie und Saisonalität

Mit Halloween beginnt eigentlich an den US-Börsen die „starke Periode“, die nach Thanksgiving sogar noch an Dynamik gewinnt. In diesem Jahr jedoch haben sich die US-Aktienmärkte seit August saisonuntypisch und deutlich positiver entwickelt als in früheren Jahren. Nun messen wir ein sehr bullishes Sentiment bei gleichzeitig fallender Bias. Zwei Statistiken stehen sich damit gegenüber.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 43-2017

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High optimism and low neutrality may be a risk for equities

The rising tide of optimism on equities has lifted near-term sentiment readings on the EuroSTOXX Index to highly elevated levels. This has occurred despite a continued weakening in investors’ strategic bias on equities from recent highs. In short, high optimism on the near-term outlook is set against a less upbeat view on the medium-term prospects for markets. It is also set against increasingly high levels of investor ‘certainty’ on the near-term outlook, based on the sentix Neutrality indices. It is a combination that points to the potential for increased equity volatility in the near-term. See Charts 2-4 and 7, p2 and 3.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 42-2017

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Emerging Markets Aktien im Fokus

Die Aktienmärkte der Emerging Markets zeigten sich in den letzten Wochen weiter stark. Entgegen unserer Erwartung haben die Kurse nochmals zugelegt. An der kritischen Datenlage hat sich nichts geändert. Folglich bleibt es bei unserer vorsichtigen Einschätzung!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 42-2017

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EM equities and Commodity sentiment holding up

In recent weeks, survey participants have become less positive on the medium-term prospects for developed and emerging equity markets, even as indices have pushed ever-higher. However, monthly survey questions on asset class sentiment suggest investors’ opinion on emerging equity markets as a grouping is holding up. This is consistent with investors’ positive opinion on the outlook for commodities. EM equity and commodity sentiment remain closely linked. A continued revival in investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Crude Oil would therefore likely lend support to risk appetite in emerging markets. One to watch! See Charts 2-4, p2.

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