sentix ASR Essentials 28-2014

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Sentiment staccato

The sentix Global Investor Survey has created a real sentiment-staccato in the data for this week. The western stock markets have produced a line of negative sentiment extremes. Surprisingly, the medium term confidence isn´t affected by growing fears. A more drastic sentiment picture is measured in EUR/USD: Such a one-sided data constellation hasn´t been observed in the complete sentix history.

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sentix ASR Essentials 27-2014

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Bullish signals from China

sentix data for stocks remain robust. The bullish indication for Chinese equities even offers new opportunities for rising prices. For bonds the picture looks different. The readiness to take profits is high and so is the overconfidence index. On FX markets the focus is back on USD-JPY. Here, the Strategic Bias is the supportive pillar.

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sentix ASR Essentials 26-2014

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Geopolitics of no interests to investors

Stock markets are still not impressed by the diverse old and new stress factors. A moderately bearish sentiment and a positive and stable strategic bias reflect investors who have sorrows in the short-term but are convinced about the stock performance in the medium-term. As far as bonds are concerned high spirits dominate the markets while the extraordinary constellation for EUR-USD prevails.

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sentix ASR Essentials 25-2014

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Commodities optimism on the up

The sentix survey indicates that investor sentiment towards Commodities continues to improve. At an asset class level, sentiment readings are steadily pulling away from their 2014 lows (see Chart 3, page 2). At a market level, the latest survey revealed sharp improvement in short and medium-term sentiment readings for Gold (Chart 2). This improved tone of sentiment towards Commodities is consistent with the more optimistic views on the outlook for Emerging Markets that have emerged in recent months, though in the near-term survey participants have become a little less upbeat on the medium-term prospects for the Chinese market (Chart 4).

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sentix ASR Essentials 24-2014

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Macro moves seen as less Bond-supportive

The latest Sentix survey underlines the ongoing improvement in sentiment towards equity markets (see Page 3), set against a less upbeat view on European bonds. While the past week has seen medium-term sentiment readings for Bunds tick a little higher, they remain well down from their May high-point, even as Bund prices have remained firm. This caution chimes with other readings that also indicate that survey participants view economic developments and inflation as having become less bond-supportive in the medium-term (Charts 2 and 3, page 2). Investors' caution on European Bonds may in part be reflecting changing opinion on the macro backdrop, and its implications for Bonds. 

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