sentix Investmentmeinung 50-2017

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Vola ante portas

16 Jahre ist es her, seitdem die kurzfristige Neutralität für deutsche, aber auch für europäische Aktien so hoch war. Die Anleger treten an die Seitenlinie und warten auf das nächste Signal. Dies muss sich nicht zwingend positiv oder negativ auflösen. Fest steht, neben dem Christkind steht auch ein frischer Vola-Impuls vor der Tür!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX

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sentix-ASR Essentials 50-2017

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Historically high neutrality points to risk of rise in equity volatility

The latest sentix survey revealed that the recent turnaround in sentiment towards eurozone bonds versus equities is continuing as the festive period draws near, while at the same time investors’ medium-term strategic bias on the EuroSTOXX continues to weaken. In terms of near-term equity sentiment, survey readings are running at modestly positive levels. However, beneath the surface, investors’ neutrality on the near-term outlook for the EuroSTOXX index has reached historic highs. This chimes with historically low levels of implied market volatility, as measured by the VSTOXX Index. It suggests potential for a pick-up in equity volatility as markets move into next year. See charts 2-4, p2.

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Historical signals - Financial crisis greets!

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In summer 2007, the world of investors was still in order. Equities should rise, interest rates should also rise - and problems such as the looming subprime crisis are best ignored. This recipe for success proved to be a capital failure. Are investors currently making another historic mistake? The danger that show the sentix overconfidence indices, exists at least.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 49-2017

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Overconfidence und Erinnerungen an 2015

Markante Daten finden sich aktuell in der sentix-Datenbank. Diese wecken Erinnerungen an das Jahresende 2015 – und an einen unglücklichen Start ins Jahr 2016. Wiederholt sich die Geschichte? Das wäre zumindest für die meisten Anleger eine faustdicke Überraschung, denn scheinbar spricht alles für Aktien und gegen Bonds.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: US Bonds, S&P 500, Gold

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sentix ASR Essentials 49-2017

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Energy optimism burning less brightly

The recent OPEC deal to extend productions cuts has done little to bolster investor sentiment towards energy. In the case of crude oil, both near-term sentiment and readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias have further retreated from recent highs. In terms of oil sentiment, it appears to have been a case of buy the rumour sell the fact on OPEC. At the same time, optimism on the European energy sector relative to the market has sharply reversed from the five-year highs recorded a month ago. Investor optimism on energy related plays is weakening. See pages 2 and 3 for charts.

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