sentix Investmentmeinung 12-2017

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Währungen im Fokus

Entgegen unserer Erwartungen zeigt der Yen keine Schwäche, im Gegenteil. Nun dreht auch der Strategische Bias deutlich – und zwar gegen US-Dollar! – und wirbelt damit so einiges durcheinander. In jedem Fall müs-sen wir dieser Entwicklung Tribut zollen und schließen die USD-JPY-Empfehlung. Im Gegenzug verbessert sich das Gold-Setup – trotz relativ hoher Sentimentwerte!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: USD-JPY, Gold

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sentix ASR Essentials 12-2017

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Strong strategic bias themes evident in Equities, FX and Oil

Several strong themes have emerged from the sentix survey in terms of investors’ strategic bias. Investors appear to remain unconvinced about the medium-term outlook for global equities, with strategic bias readings declining for indices in Europe, the US and Japan. In the case of the Eurozone, this has resulted in participants’ strategic bias on bunds versus equities becoming much less negative in recent months. At the same time, survey participants have become more positive on the medium-term outlook for the euro versus the US dollar, likely helped by the Fed’s recent more ‘dovish’ rate hike than had been expected. However, expectations of a weaker dollar have done little to change investors’ medium-term bias on Crude Oil, with strategic bias readings now not far from their 2015 lows. Strong strategic bias themes are evident in survey readings on Equities, FX and Oil. See Charts p2.

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Appetite for risk is back

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Investors’ risk preference has reached levels last seen in 2011 and before the financial crisis 2007/08. In both cases, the sentix indicator was a warning signal for coming trouble in equity markets.

sentix Investmentmeinung 11-2017

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Die Aktien-Risikolage wird nicht besser

Die steigenden Aktienkurse sorgen nicht für Entspannung in unserem Datenkranz. Im Gegenteil. Die von uns gemessene Risikolage verschlechtert sich weiter. Wir zeigen dies anhand diverser sentix-Indikatoren auf. Pa-rallelen zum Frühjahr 2006 drängen sich auf.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EuroSTOXX 50

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sentix ASR Essentials 11-2017

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Commodities sentiment setback a risk for EM Equities

Investor sentiment towards emerging market (EM) equities remains closely linked with views on commodities. It is notable then that optimism on commodities as a grouping has been tempered in the past month, even as EM sentiment has headed higher. The latest survey highlights a large and growing divergence of opinions on two key commodity markets, with investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Crude Oil becoming ever-more negative, while Gold readings have resumed their upward path. This caution on crude appears to be dampening sentiment towards commodities as an asset class. Based on past experience, the risk is that continued caution on commodities proves a drag on EM equity sentiment. See Charts 2-4, p2.

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