France relaxed

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The first election round to the French presidential election has appeased investors' minds. Only 13.6% of investors are now expecting the euro to break-up, after 18.7% in the previous month. For France, the probability of an Euro ex-it (“Frexit”) decreases to 3.5% after an high of 8,4% end of February. However, Greece and Italy remain the most likely potential candidates for exit.

In a sentix special survey, it was already apparent at the beginning of last week that investors consider the French presidential election to be decisive. The favorite from the first round is also clearly expected to be the winner of the competition on May, 7th. According to the political agenda of Emanuel Macron, only 3.5% of investors expect the Euro-zone to disintegrate by an exit of France. At the end of February, the sub-index for France was at 8.4%, at time an election victory of Marine Le Pen seemed still a probable variant. Whether this speculation of the investors will be suc-cessful will be evident in a few days. However, the choice is hardly likely to trigger an additional boost from an expec-tation change. At least not in regard of the Euro crisis.

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Headline Index Eurozone and sub-index France (left scale)

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Headline Index Eurozone and sub-index France (left scale)

Eurozone investors remain skeptic about Greece (8.7% exit probability) and Italy (7.4%). But both indices have also weakened significantly. This all had a favorable effect on the contagion risk index, which fell from 44.9% to 41.5%.

Background information

The sentix Euro Breakup Index is published on a monthly basis and was launched in June 2012. Its poll is running for two days around the fourth Friday of each month. Results are regularly published on the following Tuesday morning. Survey participants may choose up to three euro-zone member states of which they think they will quit the currency union within the next twelve months. Further details on the sentix Euro Breakup Index can be found on http://ebr.sentix.de.

This month’s reading of 13.6% means that currently, this percentage of all surveyed investors expect the euro to break up within the next twelve months. The EBI has reached its high at 73% in July 2012 and touched its low at 7.6% in July 2014.

The current poll in which 1.055 institutional and retail investors participated was conducted from April, 27th to April, 29th 2017.

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