sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

After New Year’s Eve yet another china cracker

That’s not what many investors have expected: right at the start of 2016, investors have to farewell certainties of 2015. Dark clouds arise in the east and could carry more than just light showers. it seems undoubtedly reasonable that the Chinese business cycle face a period of significant slow down, rather it seems like a hard landing. Such a scenario would not pass the Eurozone without damage.

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No ECB money, no funny

Economic expectations for the Eurozone continue to rise contrary to the global trend. Amid slightly lower growth in global economic momentum, the Eurozone stands out. Explanations should be found in the latest ECB statement. The December round of ECB stimulus felt short of expectations, however, the embracement of ECB’s “whatever it takes massage” has worked yet again. Without more ECB stimulus the Eurozone would most likely be in accordance to the global outlook.

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Recovery is back on track

Sentix captures a significant sentiment swing regarding global economic expectations in November. Neither signs of a seasonal depression of investors’ mood nor a November bias can be traced in the latest sentix data. With the exception of Austria, investors’ economic expectations rise for all major world regions. Of particular significance is the change of economic trend in Asia ex. Japan. Apparently, Chinese administration has been successful in restoring confidence in the potential of the Chinese economy.

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The west follows the emerging markets

October has not brought the desired relief for strained economic expectations yet. The western economies follow emerging markets’ negative parameters. The Eurozone, Germany, the US as well as Japan show lower values for all components of the sentix Economic Index. The only glimmers of hope are the emerging markets, as for now they successfully halted the state of free-fall. Investors observe a stabilising process but on low levels across emerging markets. Asia ex Japan, Eastern Europe and Latin America benefit as economic expectations brighten up.

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Economic expectations collapse globally

In September, the sentix Economic Indices drop significantly driven by strongly falling indicators for Japan and for Asia ex Japan. Against the background of the turbulences in China investors cut back strongly their assessments and expectations regarding these regions' economies. Furhermore, the rest of the world enters the maelstrom. While for Latin America and Eastern Europe ever darker clouds gather now also the economic expectations for the hitherto stability anchors, the US and the euro area, fall markedly.

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