sentix policy barometer: Geopolitics burdened

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sentix policy barometer: Geopolitics burdenedPolitical risks are again rated significantly more negatively by investors. The sentix policy barometer fell by 0.11 points in April to -0.59. This is the lowest value since the start of the survey in April 2017. No wonder, since at the time of the survey the Syrian conflict was on the verge of a dramatic escalation.

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Clearance sale

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Retail shares are not really generating any storms of enthusiasm among investors at present. On the contrary: the in-vestor sentiment measured by sentix is in the negative range with more than 1.5 standard deviations. This is the lowest value since 2006, but it offers a contrary opportunity!

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sentix policy barometer: Trump disturbs - and benefits

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Anyone who thought that after the Italian parliamentary elections there would be calm on the political front is mistaken. Elections and the euro crisis have indeed faded into the background for investors, even though it is far from easy to form a government in Italy. Instead, the fire head on the other side of the Atlantic is making headlines again and is unsettled with protectionist slogans. For Trump himself, however, this seems to be paying off.

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Institutional investors without clear equity positioning

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Professional investors are paid to outperform by clearly positioning themselves against their benchmark. However, many institutional investors are currently retreating to their benchmarks in the "neutral corner". This is an unusual development and cause of a great disorientation - in the short and medium term.

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A single repetition

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In December last year, we published an unusual data constellation at this point. While the sentix overconfidence in-dex for equities showed an upper extreme, indicating increased risk exposure, the counterpart for US bonds was at a low. The difference between the two observations produced an extreme signal, which had only been reached once before - on the eve of the financial crisis. Now, in February 2018, another such extreme signal is emerging. A unique repetition!

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